# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-24 · 22 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT24 · as_of 2026-10-24T10:13:24Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-24 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT24 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on October 23rd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	78	65	0.83	YYYYYYnYYY	0.82	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	44	36	0.82	YYYYYYYYYY	0.81	hist	yes
China	china	45	38	0.84	nYYYnYYYYY	0.76	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	43	30	0.7	nYYYnYnYYY	0.68	hist	no
Tomahawk	tomahawk	2	2	1	YY	0.61	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	34	21	0.62	nnYnnnYYYn	0.61	hist	yes
Border	border	42	28	0.67	YYnYYnnYYn	0.6	hist	yes
Russia	russia	37	23	0.62	nnnnYYYYYY	0.6	hist	no
Disaster	disaster	2	2	1	YY	0.57	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	27	17	0.63	nnnnYnYYYY	0.57	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	4	3	0.75	nYYY	0.55	hist	yes
Drug	drug	11	7	0.64	YYnYYYYnnY	0.55	hist	yes
Putin	putin	46	30	0.65	nYnnnnnYYY	0.49	hist	no
NATO	nato	33	15	0.45	YYnnnYYnnY	0.49	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	27	13	0.48	nnnnnnnYnY	0.46	hist	yes
Oil	oil	22	8	0.36	YnnnnnYYYY	0.4	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	12	5	0.42	nYYnnnnYYn	0.39	hist	no
Water	water	11	4	0.36	nnYnnYYnnn	0.39	hist	no
Drone	drone	17	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnY	0.29	hist	no
Sanction	sanction	22	3	0.14	nnnYnnnnnn	0.15	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	147	8	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.1	hist	yes
Stablecoin	stablecoin	0	0			0.43	prior	no