# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-23 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT23 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:22:59Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-23 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT23 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of meeting with the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on October 22nd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	77	64	0.83	YYYYYYYnYY	0.82	hist	yes
China	china	44	37	0.84	YnYYYnYYYY	0.74	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	42	29	0.69	YnYYYnYnYY	0.65	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	33	21	0.64	YnnYnnnYYY	0.64	hist	no
Border	border	41	28	0.68	YYYnYYnnYY	0.63	hist	no
Russia	russia	36	22	0.61	YnnnnYYYYY	0.57	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	26	16	0.62	YnnnnYnYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Tomahawk	tomahawk	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
Trump	trump	6	4	0.67	YYYnnY	0.52	hist	no
Drug	drug	10	6	0.6	nYYnYYYYnn	0.51	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	8	6	0.75	YYYYYnYn	0.49	hist	no
Disaster	disaster	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Putin	putin	45	29	0.64	nnYnnnnnYY	0.46	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	26	12	0.46	nnnnnnnnYn	0.43	hist	yes
Schumer	schumer	11	5	0.45	YnYYnnnnYY	0.42	hist	no
Dead Country	dead country	7	3	0.43	YnYnnYn	0.41	hist	no
IQ	iq	6	2	0.33	YYnnnn	0.39	hist	no
Defense	defense	12	4	0.33	nnnYnnnYYn	0.38	hist	no
Oil	oil	21	7	0.33	YYnnnnnYYY	0.35	hist	yes
Gaza / Hamas	gaza|hama	2	0	0	nn	0.29	hist	no
Nobel	nobel	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.22	hist	no
ICE	ice	13	3	0.23	YYnnnnnnnn	0.19	hist	no
Bargain	bargain	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Event Does Not Occur	event does not occur	0	0			0.43	prior	no