# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · presser 2025-10-16 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT16B · as_of 2026-10-25T01:15:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-16 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT16B ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Press Conference on October 15th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	68	56	0.82	YnYYYYnYYY	0.7	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	15	12	0.8	nYYYYYYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Radical Left	radical left	8	6	0.75	YYYYnYnY	0.53	hist	yes
Terrorist	terrorist	7	4	0.57	YnYYnYn	0.49	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	24	17	0.71	YYnYYYYYYY	0.47	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	13	9	0.69	YYYYYYYYnY	0.45	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	4	4	1	YYYY	0.4	hist	yes
Lunatic	lunatic	2	2	1	YY	0.4	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.38	hist	yes
Gang	gang	2	1	0.5	nY	0.35	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	12	6	0.5	YYYnnnnYYn	0.34	hist	yes
Portland	portland	6	3	0.5	nnnYYY	0.34	hist	no
Trafficking	trafficking	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
Memphis	memphis	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	yes
Political Violence	political violence	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.28	hist	no
Woke	woke	20	4	0.2	nnnnYnnYnY	0.28	hist	no
Socialist	socialist	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	no
Soros	soro	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	no
ICE	ice	9	3	0.33	YnnYYnnnn	0.24	hist	no
Antifa	antifa	7	2	0.29	YYnnnnn	0.24	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	138	8	0.06	YYYnnnnnnn	0.15	hist	no
Cambodia	cambodia	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Criminal	criminal	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Disaster	disaster	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Pig	pig	0	0			0.33	prior	no