Will Donald Trump say “Criminal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Criminal” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Criminal
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to rob, rape, and kill. Why can't I have a candidate like…
…benefits to illegal aliens and even wrote a memo giving illegal alien criminals instructions on how to evade capture. He's explaining to them how to…
…that's exactly what they are. And they're often part of a sophisticated criminal syndicate operating scam centers all around the world. Almost three-quarters of American…
…control. The hardest thing we have to do is nab these career criminals, these horrendous people, and get them the hell out of here. Get…
…Treasury involved to follow where the money's hiding. It's not just the criminal in front of you that Nick saw. It's also the people behind…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Criminal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Criminal” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Criminal” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Criminal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/criminal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=criminal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP