Will Donald Trump say “Obliterated”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Obliterated” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 25, 2025 (75%), most recently on Jun 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Obliterated
- Probability
- 45% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to a nuclear weapon for Iran. It was a horrible deal. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer. You remember that? Late…
…to a the number one state sponsor of terror Iran so we obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with operation midnight hammer and operation epic fuel…
…Iran. I terminated that was a road to a nuclear weapon. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer, a beautiful operation, and…
…refused. They absolutely refused. That was a big mistake Then in Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. military obliterated their nuclear program beneath mountains of rubble.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2025 | Obliterated |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Obliterated |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Obliterated | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Obliterated | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Obliterated”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Obliterated” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 25, 2025 (75%), most recently on Jun 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Obliterated” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Obliterated’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/obliterated (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=obliterated · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP