Will Donald Trump say “Success / Successful”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Success / Successful” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 21, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jun 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Success / Successful
- Probability
- 45% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…hard time. The poverty rate has just reached its best level, most successful level in American history. Poverty. So, income, poverty, more jobs. Here's another…
…all done. And if we did nothing else, we had a great success. We put That's why we call it the great big be. It's…
…been a top priority for our wonderful first lady, who led a successful bipartisan effort to pass the Take It Down Act, a big deal.And…
…and we have Mr. Wall. I love Mr. Wall. He's a very, very successful guy. I saw him interviewed. He's a very smart guy, but
…at the National Design Studio. Everything Joe's done has been a big success for us. So, here's what we're going to be doing. Anybody that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2025 | Success / Successful |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Success/Successful | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Success / Successful”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Success / Successful” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 21, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jun 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Success / Successful” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Success / Successful’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/success-or-successful (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=success%20%2F%20successful · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP