Will Donald Trump say “Jail”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Jail” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Jail
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you imagine? And I pardoned many people who Biden administration sent to jail. They were fixing, you know what they were sent to jail for?…
…who's been arrested, wired $10,000 right away to get them out of jail, except nobody was arrested, nobody is in jail, and the money goes…
…continue. If you steal from the American people you should go to jail, and it shouldn't be up to a district judge to decide whether…
…of Venezuelan political prisoners have been freed. They've let them out of jails, and we're working closely with the leaders of Venezuela to forge a…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Jail”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Jail” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Jail” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Jail’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/jail (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=jail · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP