Will Karoline Leavitt say “Butler”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Butler” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Butler
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in 2024 when the President had the attempt on his life in Butler, you cut your maternity leave short back then. You're obviously back here…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Butler |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Butler”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Butler” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Butler” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Butler’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/butler (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=butler · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP