# Karoline Leavitt (karoline-leavitt) · remarks 2026-04-02 · 30 words · K k:KXLEAVITTSMFMENTION-26APR02 · as_of 2026-10-24T06:14:01Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-02 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-26..2026-03-30 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXLEAVITTSMFMENTION-26APR02 ({word} = w of K rows): If Karoline Leavitt says {word} as part of Turning Point Tour at George Washington University, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	2	2	1	YY	8	7	0.51	hist	yes
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	1	1	1	Y	8	4	0.45	hist	no
Iran	iran	1	1	1	1	Y	8	6	0.45	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	1	1	1	Y	8	5	0.45	hist	no
China	china	1	0	0			8	3	0.44	hist	no
ICE / TSA	ice|tsa	1	0	0			8	7	0.37	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	8	1	0.32	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.3	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	1	0	0	n	8	4	0.29	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	1	0	0	n	8	7	0.29	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.29	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	2	0	0	nn	8	3	0.28	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	2	0	0	nn	8	6	0.26	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	2	0	0	nn	8	5	0.26	hist	yes
Agitator	agitator	1	0	0			8	3	0.35	prior	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	no
America First	america first	1	0	0			8	0	0.35	prior	no
Butler	butler	1	0	0			8	0	0.35	prior	no
Campaign / Campaigned	campaign|campaigned	1	0	0			8	4	0.35	prior	yes
Common Sense	common sense	1	0	0			8	6	0.35	prior	yes
Deport / Deportation	deport|deportation	1	0	0			8	5	0.35	prior	no
Fake News	fake new	1	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	yes
God (3+ times)	god#3	3	0	0			8	0	0.35	prior	yes
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	0	0			8	5	0.35	prior	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	0	0			8	6	0.35	prior	no
Pregnant / Baby	baby|pregnant	1	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	yes
Save Act / Save America Act	save act|save america act	1	0	0			8	6	0.35	prior	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	no
Transgender	transgender	1	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	no
Woke / DEI	dei|woke	1	0	0			8	0	0.35	prior	no