Will Karoline Leavitt say “China”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “China” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
China
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…opportunity for communities across this country. All while cementing America's dominance over China in the global AI race. The President is ensuring the American people…
…of you perhaps, are President Trump's threats of a 50% tariff against China still on the table now, or is the letter exchange that we…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…new phase of negotiations in Islamabad later this week. With respect to China, there were conversations that took place between top levels of our government…
I do expect cabinet officials to travel to China ahead of time. I don't have a readout on their schedules for you. But this is…
…President Trump's meeting and -- long awaited meeting with President Xi in China will now take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15th. First…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “China”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “China” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “China” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP