Jerome Powell: Keynote, May 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say during the Framework Review?
Polymarket What will Powell say during Framework Review speech on May 15?
Markets
37 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Depression | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dual Mandate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ELB / Effective Lower Bound | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Framework | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Laubach | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uncertainty | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unemployment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Morning | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| GDP / Gross Domestic Product | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beige Book | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| COVID 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Downbeat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Forward Guidance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 40+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 50+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| QE / Quantitative Easing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Slowdown | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unemployment 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cooling Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dot Plot | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flexibility | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Median | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| R* / R-star / R star | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resilience | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Restrictive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transitory | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJPOWMENTION-25MAY15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP