Will Jerome Powell say “Uncertainty”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Uncertainty” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 15, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Uncertainty
- Probability
- 59% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to…
…December. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision. Monetary policy is…
…this scope—we’d never had that in 100 years. And so there’s great uncertainty at different points. Another thing I’ll say is, when it comes to…
…2027, unchanged from September. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision.
…we’re going to get. If there is a very high level of uncertainty, then that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Uncertainty |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 15, 2025 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Uncertainty”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Uncertainty” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 15, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Uncertainty” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Uncertainty’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/uncertainty (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=uncertainty · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP