# Jerome Powell (jerome-powell) · keynote 2025-05-15 · 37 words · K k:KXJPOWMENTION-25MAY15 · P p:what-will-powell-say-during-framework-review-speech-on-may-15 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:13:18Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-05-15 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2024-06-12..2025-05-07 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXJPOWMENTION-25MAY15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jerome Powell says {word} as part of the Framework Review At the Thomas Laubach Research Conference originally scheduled for 8:40 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-powell-say-during-framework-review-speech-on-may-15 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during his scheduled Framework Review speech.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
GDP / Gross Domestic Product	gdp|gross domestic product	1	K	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.64	hist	no
Recession	recession	1	KP	2	1	0.5	Yn	8	5	0.58	hist	yes
Energy	energy	1	P	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.53	hist	no
China	china	1	P	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.36	hist	no
Good Morning	good morning	1	K	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.24	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	P	0	0			8	2	0.43	prior	no
Beige Book	beige book	1	P	0	0			8	3	0.43	prior	no
Climate	climate	1	P	0	0			8	1	0.43	prior	no
COVID 3+	covid#3	3	P	0	0			8	0	0.43	prior	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	0	0			8	2	0.43	prior	no
Depression	depression	1	P	0	0			8	0	0.43	prior	yes
Downbeat	downbeat	1	P	0	0			8	3	0.43	prior	no
Forward Guidance	forward guidance	1	P	0	0			8	2	0.43	prior	no
Immigration	immigration	1	P	0	0			8	5	0.43	prior	no
Inflation 40+ times	inflation#40	40	P	0	0			8	7	0.43	prior	no
Inflation 50+ times	inflation#50	50	P	0	0			8	6	0.43	prior	no
QE / Quantitative Easing	qe|quantitative easing	1	P	0	0			8	1	0.43	prior	no
Slowdown	slowdown	1	P	0	0			8	3	0.43	prior	no
Tariff 15+ times	tariff#15	15	P	0	0			8	2	0.43	prior	no
Unemployment 15+ times	unemployment#15	15	P	0	0			8	2	0.43	prior	no
Balance Sheet	balance sheet	1	K	0	0			8	4	0.4	prior	no
Cooling Inflation	cooling inflation	1	K	0	0			8	0	0.4	prior	no
Dot Plot	dot plot	1	K	0	0			8	1	0.4	prior	no
Dual Mandate	dual mandate	1	K	0	0			8	8	0.4	prior	yes
ELB / Effective Lower Bound	effective lower bound|elb	1	K	0	0			8	0	0.4	prior	yes
FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target	fait|flexible average inflation target	1	K	0	0			8	0	0.4	prior	no
Flexibility	flexibility	1	K	0	0			8	0	0.4	prior	no
FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee	federal open market committee|fomc	1	K	0	0			8	8	0.4	prior	yes
Framework	framework	1	K	0	0			8	5	0.4	prior	yes
Laubach	laubach	1	K	0	0			8	0	0.4	prior	yes
Median	median	1	KP	0	0			8	4	0.4	prior	no
R* / R-star / R star	r|r star	1	K	0	0			8	2	0.4	prior	no
Resilience	resilience	1	K	0	0			8	1	0.4	prior	no
Restrictive	restrictive	1	K	0	0			8	8	0.4	prior	no
Transitory	transitory	1	K	0	0			8	2	0.4	prior	no
Uncertainty	uncertainty	1	K	0	0			8	8	0.4	prior	yes
Unemployment	unemployment	1	K	0	0			8	8	0.4	prior	yes