Remarks transcript, Jul 14, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Prime Minister Ali Falih Kadhim al-Zaydi of Iraq and an Exchange With Reporters

In remarks on Jul 14, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 22 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

22 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Thank You Yes1127✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Iran 3+ timesYes912✓66%n=34 from settlement history–
Oil Yes99✓65%n=105 from settlement history–
Bad / Badly Yes88✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Invest / Investment Yes67✓40%n=4 from settlement history–
Deal Yes45✓51%n=10 from settlement history–
Biden Yes22✓54%n=297 from settlement history–
Lindsey / Graham Yes23✓–new new word, no probability yet–
AI / Artificial Intelligence Yes22✓34%n=193 from settlement history–
Soleimani Yes22✓34%n=9 from settlement history–
Nuclear / Denuclearization No00✓63%n=176 from settlement history–
Russia No01✓48%n=67 from settlement history–
Israel / Israeli No00✓46%n=69 from settlement history–
Communist / Communism No00✓45%n=58 from settlement history–
Ukraine No00✓42%n=71 from settlement history–
Speech / Address No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Drone No00✓38%n=57 from settlement history–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability No00✓33%n=45 from settlement history–
Central Casting No00✓30%n=8 from settlement history–
Excursion No00✓29%n=10 from settlement history–
Hormuz No02✓24%n=67 from settlement history–
Ceasefire No00✓15%n=71 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.

Transcript

164 passages · part 2 of 2

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Questions and answers

And I just want to say that the United States has never done better. We're doing well. You know, more people are working today in the United States than at any time in history.

We have more things being built. Factories, plants, AI, automobile plants are being built at record numbers, more than we've ever had ever before. The tariffs have done—have been used very judiciously and properly. And companies are pouring in and countries are pouring into this country to build factories because when they build them, they have no tariffs.

And we have numbers: $19—$19.2 trillion. As an example, under Biden, it was less than $1 trillion for 4 years. We're at $19.2 trillion for 12 months. Nobody's ever seen anything like it.

Our relationship with Iraq is—I would say, it went from being not so good to being outstanding. And we're going to have a long-term relationship with Iraq. We're going to have a long-term relationship with a man that will be a great leader.

You—mark my words. I knew what I was doing. This man is going to be a great leader in the Middle East beyond Iraq. His influence is going to spread all throughout the Middle East, and we're—very happy about it.

And we're very happy to have you with us. Thank you very much.

Hey, I just want to—I don't think there's anything much else you can ask us. This is a very important meeting. It's something I've never done before: No lunch was scheduled; I said, "Let's have lunch." [ Laughter ] I've never done that before. Sometimes we'll have a lunch scheduled, but I've never done this—right, Susie? This is a first. So I have no idea what we're going to be eating, but it will be fine. But we're doing it because we like the people that we're with.

Thank you very much.

Qreporter30:56

Are you confident in the Blanche confirmation? Attorney General Blanche—are you confident he'll be confirmed?

[ Inaudible ] Yes.

Qreporter30:56

Should be good?

He's a good man, yes. Should be.

Qreporter30:56

Thank you, Mr. President.

Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-14:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-14:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP