Remarks transcript, Jul 14, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jul 14, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 22 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thank You | Yes | 11 | 27 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 66%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 65%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Bad / Badly | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invest / Investment | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=297 from settlement history | – |
| Lindsey / Graham | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 34%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear / Denuclearization | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=176 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Speech / Address | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Central Casting | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 24%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=71 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
164 passages · part 2 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
And I just want to say that the United States has never done better. We're doing well. You know, more people are working today in the United States than at any time in history.
We have more things being built. Factories, plants, AI, automobile plants are being built at record numbers, more than we've ever had ever before. The tariffs have done—have been used very judiciously and properly. And companies are pouring in and countries are pouring into this country to build factories because when they build them, they have no tariffs.
And we have numbers: $19—$19.2 trillion. As an example, under Biden, it was less than $1 trillion for 4 years. We're at $19.2 trillion for 12 months. Nobody's ever seen anything like it.
Our relationship with Iraq is—I would say, it went from being not so good to being outstanding. And we're going to have a long-term relationship with Iraq. We're going to have a long-term relationship with a man that will be a great leader.
You—mark my words. I knew what I was doing. This man is going to be a great leader in the Middle East beyond Iraq. His influence is going to spread all throughout the Middle East, and we're—very happy about it.
And we're very happy to have you with us. Thank you very much.
Hey, I just want to—I don't think there's anything much else you can ask us. This is a very important meeting. It's something I've never done before: No lunch was scheduled; I said, "Let's have lunch." [ Laughter ] I've never done that before. Sometimes we'll have a lunch scheduled, but I've never done this—right, Susie? This is a first. So I have no idea what we're going to be eating, but it will be fine. But we're doing it because we like the people that we're with.
Thank you very much.
Are you confident in the Blanche confirmation? Attorney General Blanche—are you confident he'll be confirmed?
[ Inaudible ] Yes.
Should be good?
He's a good man, yes. Should be.
Thank you, Mr. President.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-14:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-14:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP