Keir Starmer
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 69 word markets on Keir Starmer’s appearances since 2025, on 66 different words.
History Wall
1–40 of 66, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Feb 27 ’25conference | Jun 23 ’26remarks | Jun 24latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Settled yes: Trump, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled no: Trump, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Trump, Jun 24 conference | 1/333% | 1/333% | 24%n=3 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 24 conference | 1/250% | 1/250% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| Ban | Not listed: Ban, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Ban, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Ban, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| BBC/British Broadcasting Company | Settled yes: BBC/British Broadcasting Company, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: BBC/British Broadcasting Company, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: BBC/British Broadcasting Company, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Constituent / Constituency | Not listed: Constituent / Constituency, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Constituent / Constituency, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Constituent / Constituency, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Defense | Not listed: Defense, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Defense, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Defense, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Europe | Not listed: Europe, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Europe, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Europe, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Green | Not listed: Green, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Green, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Green, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| King/Queen | Settled yes: King/Queen, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: King/Queen, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: King/Queen, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Labour | Not listed: Labour, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Labour, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Labour, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| NATO | Settled yes: NATO, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: NATO, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: NATO, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Northern Ireland | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Northern Ireland, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Poverty | Not listed: Poverty, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Poverty, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Poverty, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Vladimir/Putin | Settled yes: Vladimir/Putin, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Vladimir/Putin, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Vladimir/Putin, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Record Funding | Not listed: Record Funding, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Record Funding, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Record Funding, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Record Investment | Not listed: Record Investment, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Record Investment, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Record Investment, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Russia / Ukraine | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Russia / Ukraine, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Scotland | Not listed: Scotland, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Scotland, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Scotland, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Shadow | Not listed: Shadow, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Shadow, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Shadow, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Social Media | Not listed: Social Media, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Social Media, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Social Media, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Thank5+ times | Not listed: Thank 5+ times, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Thank 5+ times, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Thank 5+ times, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Ukraine, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Ukraine, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Urgent | Not listed: Urgent, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Urgent, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Urgent, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Waiting List | Not listed: Waiting List, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Waiting List, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Waiting List, Jun 24 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 5% | Not listed: 5%, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: 5%, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Settled no: 5%, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AfD/Alternative for Germany | Settled no: AfD/Alternative for Germany, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: AfD/Alternative for Germany, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: AfD/Alternative for Germany, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Million / Billion / Trillion5+ times | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled no: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Boris/Johnson | Settled no: Boris/Johnson, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Boris/Johnson, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Boris/Johnson, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Brexit | Settled no: Brexit, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Brexit, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Brexit, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Commonwealth | Settled no: Commonwealth, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Commonwealth, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Commonwealth, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Condolences | Not listed: Condolences, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled no: Condolences, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Condolences, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cracking on | Settled no: Cracking on, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Cracking on, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Cracking on, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crime / Criminal | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled no: Crime / Criminal, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Deep / Deeply | Not listed: Deep / Deeply, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Settled no: Deep / Deeply, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Deep / Deeply, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Drone | Not listed: Drone, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Drone, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Drone, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Elon/Musk | Settled no: Elon/Musk, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Epstein | Settled no: Epstein, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Epstein, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Epstein, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nigel/Farage | Settled no: Nigel/Farage, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Nigel/Farage, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Nigel/Farage, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Football | Settled no: Football, Feb 27 ’25 conference | Not listed: Football, Jun 23 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Football, Jun 24 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Keir Starmer say during his NATO press conference? | no transcript | 13 | 1 yes · 12 no | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Keir Starmer say during his resignation announcement? | no transcript | 27 | 17 yes · 10 no | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will Keir Starmer say at 2pm EST press conference with Trump? | no transcript | 30 | 6 yes · 24 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/keir-starmer · words: /api/v1/history?entity=keir-starmer · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP