Will Keir Starmer say “Northern Ireland”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer said “Northern Ireland” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 23, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
Northern Ireland
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Q14. Last week in Northern Ireland, a former Member of this House was convicted of the most horrific child sexual abuse against two girls. I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…in Belfast this morning and charged. I thank the Police Service of Northern Ireland, other first responders and members of the public, who responded with…
From 1997, the Prime Minister campaigned to scrap single-judge trials in Northern Ireland, yet when I opposed his Government’s plan to bring in single-judge trials…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…his failure to support our farmers, or his failure to support our Northern Ireland veterans and victims of the Northern Ireland troubles? Or was it…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Northern Ireland |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “Northern Ireland”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer said “Northern Ireland” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “Northern Ireland” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘Northern Ireland’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/northern-ireland (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=northern%20ireland · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP