Keir Starmer: Press conference, Jun 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Keir Starmer say during his NATO press conference?
Markets
12 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 5% | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resign / Resigned / Resignation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSTARMERMENTIONB-26JUN24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP