Will Keir Starmer say “5%”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “5%” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 24, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
5%
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…was cut defence spending. When they came to power, defence spending was 2.5%. What did they do? They cut it to 2.3%—a cut! On welfare,…
…remind the Conservatives that when they came into power, defence spending was 2.5% and they took it down to 2.3%. We have taken it up…
…plans that we inherited, fuel duty was due to go up by 5% in April. We stopped that and the Conservatives voted against it. We…
…did the Conservatives do? When they came into power, defence spending was 2.5%; when they left power, it was 2.3%. Even their own Defence Secretary…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | 5% |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “5%”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “5%” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “5%” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘5%’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/5-percent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=5%25 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP