Keir Starmer

UK prime minister from Jul 5, 2024; a successor is named in the market rules from Aug 20, 2026 (not checked against news)
WorldPersonTranscriptsUpdated

History Wall

41–66 of 66, most settled first · page 2 of 2
Keir Starmer: every word with settled markets, most settled first
WordFeb 27 ’25conferenceJun 23 ’26remarksJun 24latestLast 3SettledProbability
G7Settled no: G7, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: G7, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: G7, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
GermanySettled no: Germany, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Germany, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Germany, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
GlastonburySettled no: Glastonbury, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Glastonbury, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Glastonbury, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Harry/KaneSettled no: Harry/Kane, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Harry/Kane, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Harry/Kane, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Hate / HatredNot listed: Hate / Hatred, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceSettled no: Hate / Hatred, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Hate / Hatred, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
HormuzNot listed: Hormuz, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Hormuz, Jun 23 ’26 remarksSettled no: Hormuz, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Immigrant / ImmigrationNot listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 23 ’26 remarksSettled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
ImmigrationSettled no: Immigration, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Immigration, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Immigration, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Industrial StrategySettled no: Industrial Strategy, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Industrial Strategy, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Industrial Strategy, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
InquirySettled no: Inquiry, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Inquiry, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Inquiry, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Iran / IranianNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 23 ’26 remarksSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Level up / Leveling upSettled no: Level up / Leveling up, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Level up / Leveling up, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Level up / Leveling up, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
LondonSettled no: London, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: London, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: London, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
MineralSettled no: Mineral, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Mineral, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Mineral, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
NHS/National Health ServiceSettled no: NHS/National Health Service, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: NHS/National Health Service, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: NHS/National Health Service, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
NHS3+ timesNot listed: NHS 3+ times, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceSettled no: NHS 3+ times, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: NHS 3+ times, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
NuclearNot listed: Nuclear, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Nuclear, Jun 23 ’26 remarksSettled no: Nuclear, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
OilNot listed: Oil, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Oil, Jun 23 ’26 remarksSettled no: Oil, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
ReformSettled no: Reform, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Reform, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Reform, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Resign / Resigned / ResignationNot listed: Resign / Resigned / Resignation, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Resign / Resigned / Resignation, Jun 23 ’26 remarksSettled no: Resign / Resigned / Resignation, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Rishi/SunakSettled no: Rishi/Sunak, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Rishi/Sunak, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Rishi/Sunak, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
TeaSettled no: Tea, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Tea, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Tea, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
United StatesNot listed: United States, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceSettled no: United States, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: United States, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
VictimNot listed: Victim, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceSettled no: Victim, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Victim, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
WimbledonSettled no: Wimbledon, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceNot listed: Wimbledon, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: Wimbledon, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
World CupNot listed: World Cup, Feb 27 ’25 conferenceSettled no: World Cup, Jun 23 ’26 remarksNot listed: World Cup, Jun 24 conference0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
What the columns mean
Last N
of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
Settled
every settled market of the word: said / listed
Probability
the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

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