Will Keir Starmer say “Commonwealth”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “Commonwealth” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 27, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
Commonwealth
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Territory on 6 September, but throughout August he held meetings with Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office officials and was given access to classified information, including…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | Commonwealth |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “Commonwealth”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “Commonwealth” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 27, 2025.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “Commonwealth” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘Commonwealth’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/commonwealth (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=commonwealth · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP