Will Keir Starmer say “NATO”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer said “NATO” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 27, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
NATO
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…would not work—the UN; the EU, which was blocked by Hungary; and NATO, which Ukraine is not in—we pulled together a coalition of the willing,…
…Chief of the Air Staff said that it strengthens our contribution to NATO. The Leader of the Opposition must have missed that yesterday, the Secretary-General…
…That is about facing the future. We will finalise the plan with the Defence Secretary, and we will have it published before the NATO summit.
…review of defence and we are committed to publishing the defence investment plan before the NATO summit, which is in just a few weeks’ time.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | NATO |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “NATO”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer said “NATO” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 27, 2025.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “NATO” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘NATO’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/nato (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=nato · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP