Will Keir Starmer say “Shadow”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer said “Shadow” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 23, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
Shadow
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…welfare spending went up—£88 billion overall, with £33 billion alone under the shadow Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Central Devon (Sir Mel Stride). The…
…went up hugely on the Conservatives’ watch, as did the cost under the shadow Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Central Devon (Sir Mel Stride).
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Shadow |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “Shadow”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer said “Shadow” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “Shadow” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘Shadow’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/shadow (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=shadow · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP