Donald Trump: Speech, Oct 13, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
Markets
22 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden / Autopen | Yes | 72%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 62%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Qatar / Erdogan | Yes | 58%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bibi 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eight Wars | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hostage 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace / Shalom 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 40%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Skedaddle | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nobel / Peace Prize | No | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Genocide | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| October 7th 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Department of War | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Houthi | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-speech-to-israeli-parliament-on-october-13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP