Donald Trump: Debate, Sep 10, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say at the debate?
Markets
20 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border Czar | Yes | 68%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Marxist | Yes | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Springfield | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 15+ times | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Haitian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon Musk | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien 5+ times | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-the-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP