What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Mental Health” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Mental Health”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Mental Health” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Mental Health” at 5 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

30%from settlement history only · n=15counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 5 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 17:50 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Mental Health

Probability: 30% · n=15
Settled: 5/15 (33%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…safety net across our city. They are responding to, on average, 200,000 mental health calls a year. And what we have seen with approaches like…

Council Member Linda LeeotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…especially now, day in and day out, with immigration services, legal services, mental health services, senior services. And we need to make sure that they're…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.