Zohran Mamdani: Press conference, May 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Zohran Mamdani say during his press conference?
Markets
14 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 62%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 60%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | Yes | 49%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | Yes | 47%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Drug / Addiction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Overdose | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recovery | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 46%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 67%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 47%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ken / Griffin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire | No | 21%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP