Zohran Mamdani: Rally, Jun 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Brooklyn Rally?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 60%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | Yes | 44%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | Yes | 42%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | Yes | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | Yes | 28%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Knicks | Yes | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | Yes | 23%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Five Borough | No | 72%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | 54%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | 32%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grocery | No | 25%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 13%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 12%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JUN18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP