Kristi Noem: Hearing, Mar 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Kristi Noem say during the Oversight hearing on Homeland Security?
Markets
15 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deport / Deportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Body Cam / Body Camera | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Homan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26MAR31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP