Kristi Noem: Press conference, Feb 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Kristi Noem say during her press conference?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FBI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26FEB14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP