Kristi Noem: Press conference, Mar 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Kristi Noem say during her Press Conference?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Traffic / Trafficking | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deportation | No | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26MAR08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP