Will Kristi Noem say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Illegal Alien” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
Illegal Alien
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “Illegal Alien”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Illegal Alien” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “Illegal Alien” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP