Will Kristi Noem say “Deport / Deportation”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Deport / Deportation” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
Deport / Deportation
- Probability
- 52% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…lot of focus on immigration here this morning. That issue, the mass deportation election promise from President Trump, it used to really be a winning…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Deport / Deportation |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Deport / Deportation | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Deport / Deportation | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “Deport / Deportation”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Deport / Deportation” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “Deport / Deportation” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘Deport / Deportation’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/deport-or-deportation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=deport%20%2F%20deportation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP