Will Kristi Noem say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Fraud” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (60%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
Fraud
- Probability
- 47% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…very bad track record. He – all this billions of dollars of fraud was stolen from people under his watch. He allowed it to happen.…
…lives for doing what's right. And we're seeing in Minneapolis an unprecedented fraud history going on by elected leaders and individuals in that state, but…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Fraud” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (60%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “Fraud” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP