Will Kristi Noem say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 39% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…certain we get the budget deal through and we don't have a shutdown. And, you know, as we look to the president's proposal on national…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP