Will Kristi Noem say “National Security”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Kristi Noem said “National Security” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (20%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
National Security
- Probability
- 38% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Virginia. Senator, we have had some extraordinary news this week on the national security front. Two of America's closest allies, NATO and Canada. Canada signed…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 19, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Kristi Noem said “National Security” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (20%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “National Security” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP