Will Kristi Noem say “Mask / Masked”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Mask / Masked” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
Mask / Masked
- Probability
- 43% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Mask / Masked |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Mask / Masked | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mask / Masked | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “Mask / Masked”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Mask / Masked” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “Mask / Masked” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘Mask / Masked’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/mask-or-masked (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=mask%20%2F%20masked · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP