Will Kristi Noem say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Election” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kristi Noem
Election
- Probability
- 52% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…our new CBS poll, we're joined now by our executive director of elections and surveys, Anthony Salvanto. Anthony, a lot of focus on immigration here…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Kristi Noem say “Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kristi Noem said “Election” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Kristi Noem says “Election” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kristi-noem&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kristi-noem&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP