JD Vance: Episode, Oct 30, 2024
Polymarket What will Vance say during Rogan podcast?
Markets
25 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abortion | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Puerto Rico/Puerto Rican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 50+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vaccine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FEMA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Childless Cat Lady | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CIA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dana | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JFK | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thiel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mamaw | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Usha | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-vance-say-during-rogan-podcast · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP