JD Vance: Remarks, Aug 28, 2025
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| God 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump / President 30+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 45+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crazy / Lunatic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Union / Unionization | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Washington / DC | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin / Zelenskyy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialism / Communism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade / Tariff 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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