Will “Fraud” be said at the next Congressional hearings?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was said at the Congressional hearings on 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (54%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

59%from settlement history only · n=13counts: any witness
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
any witness
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=congressional-hearings&word=fraud

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Congressional hearings

Fraud

Probability
59% · n=13
Settled
7/13 (54%)

Next listing counts: any witness

We don’t have transcripts for Congressional hearings yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the witnesses say during Senate Muslim Brotherhood hearing? · settled yes

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What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Surveillance hearing? · settled yes

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What will the witnesses say during Senate Artificial Intelligence hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Deception hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House AI Workforce hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House UN Accountability hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House Shipbuilding hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House Oversight of Financial Crimes hearing? · settled yes

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What will witnesses say during House CLARITY Act hearing? · settled yes

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What will the witnesses say during the Senate Drug Supply Chain hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Aug 5, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Aug 4, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Jul 21, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Jul 17, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Jul 15, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Mar 25, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Mar 11, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Mar 10, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Mar 10, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Mar 7, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Mar 3, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Feb 14, 2026FraudKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Fraud” said at the Congressional hearings?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was said at the Congressional hearings on 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (54%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026.
What is the probability “Fraud” is said at the Congressional hearings next time?
59%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any witness.

Cite parrot.markets, “Congressional hearings: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/congressional-hearings/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=congressional-hearings&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=congressional-hearings&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP