Congressional hearings, Jul 24, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during House AI Workforce hearing?
Markets
16 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing / Manufacture | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 59%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Open Source | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deflation / Deflationary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Code / Coding | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Small Business | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Automation / Autonomous | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP