Congressional hearings, Mar 3, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Child Trafficking hearing?
Markets
16 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accountable / Accountability | Yes | 76%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bipartisan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NGO / Non-Governmental Organization | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renewed Hope | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Survivor / Survived | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cartel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minimum Sentence / Minimum Sentencing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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