Congressional hearings, Jul 15, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate Drug Supply Chain hearing?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communist / CCP | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 68%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shortage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biosecurity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Contaminant / Contamination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL15D · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP