Congressional hearings, Jul 29, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Deception hearing?
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Impersonate / Impersonating / Impersonation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Media | Yes | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ATM | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Catfish / Catfishing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Identity Theft | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lottery / Sweepstake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nigeria / Nigerian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Phishing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shell Company | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hack / Hacker / Hacked | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL29B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP