Congressional hearings, Aug 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Surveillance hearing?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 67%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Track / Tracking | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Privacy | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 78%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Advertise / Advertisement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Algorithm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Open Source | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hack / Hacked / Hacking | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Social Media | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26AUG04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP