Congressional hearings, Jul 17, 2026
Kalshi What will witnesses say during House CLARITY Act hearing?
Markets
14 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 67%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Blockchain | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Genius Act | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Security | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| DeFi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tokenization / Tokenized | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 71%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP