Congressional hearings, Jul 22, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during House UN Accountability hearing?
Markets
17 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 70%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Humanitarian Aid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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