Congressional hearings, Mar 10, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Witnesses at hearing on Protecting American Citizenship
Markets
16 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 14th Amendment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immune / Immunity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| India / Indian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Loophole | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anchor Baby | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Student | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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