Congressional hearings, Mar 10, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Witnesses at hearing on Sanctuary Cities
Markets
18 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billion | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance / Insured | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renee / Pretti | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| San Francisco | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Walz | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Homan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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