Congressional hearings, Aug 5, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during Senate Muslim Brotherhood hearing?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 74%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Extremist / Extremism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 73%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 69%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Front Organization | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sharia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26AUG05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP